NYC Wholesale Diamonds Blog

It has been shocking, but not at all unexpected. Gold yesterday dropped more than $140/ounce, completing a two day drop of over $200/ounce to $1,352. NYC Wholesale Diamonds in its monthly newsletter has been advising its clients since last Fall to be extremely cautious when purchasing gold and and heavier gold jewelry. The value has been, and continues to be in Diamond Jewelry set in gold or platinum.  A downward pattern has been established in gold, and it’s the oldest market pattern in the book.

A long-ignored asset finally gets hot, and its price rises for a while.

The rising price of the asset attracts new investors, whose investments drive prices even higher.

As the price rises, investors develop compelling explanations for why the price of the asset is rising, some of which may have a solid basis in fact.

The price continues to rise, more investors arrive, and their buying drives prices even higher.

Soon, the stories that explained the early price increases get repeated so often that they start to be regarded as fact.

The price rises even further. More investors hear the stories, and believe them, and hurry to get in on the action.

And so on.

At some point, however, for any of a number of reasons–often because the supply of the asset increases radically in response to the high prices–the spell breaks.

Despite the “story” not having changed, demand for the asset no longer outstrips supply, and the price drops.

At first, investors brush off the price drop as a temporary fluctuation–a “buying opportunity.” Then, when the price drops more, they look for temporary explanations and causes. They also often begin to point fingers–blaming individuals, organizations, or conspiracies for the price decline, anything but the theory that the “story” they bought into might not be true.

The declining price reduces demand for the asset–who wants to buy something when the price might drop?

The reduced demand then causes prices to drop more, which further reduces demand.

And so on.

Eventually, when all of the petals have fallen off the rose, the price of the asset usually ends up about back where it started. And those who bought into the story–the theory that something was “different this time,” that this asset was special–have to console themselves by learning from their experience.

Over the past decade, the asset that has transfixed investors more than any other is gold.

In the early 2000s, after drifting to a two-decade low below $300 an ounce, gold prices began to creep higher. At first, those who had been seduced by gold in the prior 20 years only to have their hopes dashed remained skeptical. Gradually, however, as gold kept marching higher, they became believers.

Gold’s endless bear market was finally over, the story went. Gold would now resume its normal trend upward. Gold, the only true “store of value” in a paper-money world, would increase its owners’ wealth while stocks, bonds, real-estate, cash, and other popular asset classes destroyed it. Gold had a naturally limited supply. Gold was beyond the reach of meddling politicians. The “hyper-inflation” of paper currency caused by the frantic “money-printing” of the world’s governments would be as nothing to gold: As the value of paper money collapsed, gold prices would soar, and those who had invested their fortunes in the shiny, permanent, coveted element would inherit the earth.

Alas…

In the past several months, gold prices have tanked.

As recently as six months ago, analysts were predicting that gold would soar to $2,000, $3,000, $5,000, or more, and these predictions were being taken very seriously.

Because this future was obvious:

The world’s governments were frantically “printing money.”

Soon, someday, inflation would soar, the value of paper money would collapse, and gold prices would skyrocket.

And, maybe, someday, that will indeed happen.

But it hasn’t happened yet.

Governments have been frantically “printing money” for five years now. But, as many respected economists suggested it would, inflation has remained remarkably subdued.

The government in Japan, meanwhile, has been frantically borrowing and printing money for more than two decades. And, even in Japan, inflation remains very low (in fact, the big problem in Japan is deflation, not inflation.)

So some cracks are showing in the story that gold believers have been telling themselves for the last five years.

The recent plunge in the price of gold may well prove to be a “buying opportunity,” at least temporarily. And the story that recently propelled gold prices to nearly $2,000 an ounce may yet entrance a whole new wave of investors, driving prices to another big spike and high.

But at some point, unless it really is “different this time,” gold prices will likely drop sharply and stay down. And then the gold fever really will break.

Here are some methods to help you determine if a Diamond is real…or a fake
1. Transparency Test: Diamonds should not be transparent completely. Diamond Cutters International recommends turning loose diamonds upside down over a newspaper or other piece of paper with typed words printed on it. If you are looking at a real diamond, typically you will not be able to read the text through the diamond. If you can read the text, the stone you are looking at does not have the proper light dispersion properties a real diamond possesses.
2. Reflection Color: Because of the refraction index of diamond, the reflection and sparkles within the stone are typically described as “grey” or “steel” in color. According to GoldSmart.com, stones that have rainbow like reflections are likely not genuine diamonds.
3. Fog Test: Diamonds are able to disperse heat rapidly and a light huff of breath on the stone should fog it up but that fog will vanish almost instantly. A fake diamonds may stay fogged for 2 seconds or longer according to National Jeweler’s Supply.
4. Perfection: Any natural stone will have some minute flaws and inclusions or “birth marks”, and a gem that is perfectly flawless should be examined with great care to be sure it is real rather than being lab-created. While real flawless diamonds are available, if the stone in question is offered at an unforgettably affordable price, it may not be a real gem.
If it seems too good to be true, it could be a scam or a fake.

Buying a diamond ring can be intimidating. What do you look for? How much should you pay? Should you buy online or in a store?

Demystify the process by learning about the four C’s: carat, color, clarity and cut. This system of grading diamonds was developed 60 years ago by the Gemological Institute of America.

Then do some research by visiting a trusted or referred jeweler. You can confirm information provided by the jeweler directly with the GIA, or by online research. You’ll soon understand your options. Here’s a primer on the four C’s and other advice.

THE FOUR C’s

—Carat is a weight measurement. A 1-carat diamond weighs 200 milligrams. The key here is a carat is a measure of weight, and does not exactly indicate surface area size. There can be a significant difference in size of the surface of your diamond visible from above. This is where Cut becomes so critical. There is no ideal size for a diamond. It depends on your budget and taste. Some women want a big rock; others prefer a delicate, less blingy look.

Small diamonds of the same quality are of course less expensive than larger diamonds. A ring with three small diamonds totaling 1 carat costs less than a single 1-carat stone of similar quality.

—Color is graded by letter, starting with D for rare, colorless diamonds. E and F are considered excellent, but G or H diamonds will look just as good to the naked eye.

Farther down the scale, you’ll notice differences. “If you put a K color beside a G color, you’ll notice more yellow in the K,” said Russell Shor, senior industry analyst for the Gemological Institute.

—Clarity measures diamond flaws, called inclusions, which might appear as tiny spots, clouds or cavities in the stone. The clarity grade SI stands for “slightly included.” VS is a better grade, “very slightly included.” VVS is even higher, “very, very slightly included.” Most inclusions in the VVS-SI range cannot be seen by the untrained eye “unless someone tells you where it is,” Shor said. Keith Saxe of NYC Wholesale Diamonds adds “most SI2 clarity diamonds will have inclusions clearly visible to its wearer, be careful here”.

—Cut measures workmanship, rather than a diamond’s inherent qualities. The way a stone is cut enhances sparkle and luminosity and can hide flaws. The best cut rating, ideal, is rare. About a third of diamonds are rated fair, good or very good. Saxe adds “Cut determines the sparkle, fire and brilliance of a diamond. Knowledge on what determines that a diamond is an Ideal Cut is the key to diamond buying success”. Shor states “The one thing you should not trade off on is the quality of the cut,”. “Even a nice color stone, if not well-cut, will be dull and lifeless. But if it’s a middle color — like K — and it’s got a real excellent cut, it will pop and flash with all the sparkle that diamonds are famous for.”

After choosing the cut, “balance the color, clarity and carat weight based on your personal preference to find the best diamond for you and your budget,” said Amanda Gizzi, spokeswoman for Jewelers of America.

Christie’s New York is poised to sell the largest fancy intense pink Golconda diamond ever offered at auction when the “Princie Diamond” goes up for bid on April 16.

The Princie is a 34.65-carat fancy intense pink cushion-cut diamond whose origin can be traced to the ancient Golconda mines in south central India. The stone was first recorded as belonging to the royal family of Hyderabad, who ruled one of the wealthiest provinces of the Mughal Empire.

First offered at auction in 1960 by the Nizam of Hyderabad, the London branch of Van Cleef & Arpels purchased the Princie Diamond for £46,000 (approximately $69,588 in today’s currency). The diamond got its name at a party at Van Cleef’s Paris store, where it was christened in honor of the 14-year-old Prince of Baroda, who attended the gathering.

This is the first time in 50 years that the diamond has appeared at auction, and Christie’s expects it to “achieve in the region of $30 million to $40 million.”

“One of the largest and finest pink diamonds in the world, the Princie Diamond carries a fabulous provenance. The rich history, combined with its rare pink hue, conveys a special charm, which will speak to all collectors in the world seeking the best of the best in gemstones,” said Francois Curiel, chairman of Christie’s jewelry department.

UPDATE

The Princie Diamond sells at high end of estimate and breaks multiple auction records

The $39.3 million sale of the “Princie Diamond” set new world records for the most valuable Golconda diamond sold at the auction and the most valuable diamond ever sold at Christie’s and in the United States.

The ring Napoleon gave to Josephine sold for 896,400 euros (including fees), or $1.15 million at French auction house Osenat

The ring had an estimate of $23,500 to $26,000.

“In my wildest dreams, I did not think we would outsell the estimate by more than 47 times,” Emily Villane, an auction house spokeswoman, told ABC News. “We based the estimates in our catalog on the actual market value of the ring, minus Napoleon and Josephine provenance. It is not our job to tell bidders how much they should pay for the historical premium.” The ring features a pear-shaped sapphire and a diamond. The combined weight of the two is the less than a carat.